Flip Math in Hartford County: What the 70% Rule Misses
Every investor learns the 70% rule first: pay no more than 70% of after-repair value minus repairs. It is a fine filter for deciding which listings to open. It is a poor substitute for arithmetic, and in Connecticut specifically it leaves out several thousand dollars that are not optional.
Let us run a real one.
The deal
A three-bedroom ranch in central Hartford County. Comparable renovated sales support an after-repair value of $340,000. It needs a kitchen, two baths, flooring throughout, paint, and a twenty-year-old roof replaced.
The 70% rule says: $340,000 × 0.70 = $238,000, minus $70,000 in repairs = $168,000 maximum offer.
Now the actual arithmetic.
What you actually spend
Acquisition — $168,000. Plus the costs of buying, which the rule ignores:
Connecticut state conveyance tax is paid by the seller, so on the buy side you escape it. Good.
Attorney fees. Connecticut is an attorney closing state — budget $1,200–$2,000 on the purchase.
Title search and lender's title insurance: $1,200–$2,000.
Recording fees and municipal transfer paperwork: a few hundred dollars.
If you are using hard money: 2–3 points on the loan, so on a $170,000 loan that is $3,400–$5,100, plus lender legal and appraisal.
Call acquisition costs $7,000–$10,000 on top of the price.
Rehab — $70,000, which is to say $80,500. Add a 15% contingency. Not because you are bad at estimating, but because you bid without seeing behind the walls. Knob-and-tube in a 1950s Wethersfield ranch, a failed sewer lateral in Newington, an oil tank in a Rocky Hill basement — every one of those is a five-figure surprise that arrives after demo.
If you want the single highest-value habit in this business: estimate the rehab, then add 15%, then make the offer work at the higher number.
Holding — the line everyone underestimates. Assume six months from closing to closing. That is optimistic if you are doing a full cosmetic rehab with a roof.
Hard money interest at 11% on $170,000 for six months: about $9,350
Property taxes: Connecticut mill rates vary enormously by town — on a $340,000 assessed-to-market property you are often looking at $5,000–$9,000 a year, so call six months $2,500–$4,500
Insurance on a vacant property under renovation, which costs more than a homeowner's policy: $1,500–$2,500 for six months
Utilities, lawn, snow, and keeping the heat on so nothing freezes: $1,200–$2,000
Holding comes to roughly $15,000–$18,000.
Selling — the other line everyone underestimates.
Connecticut state conveyance tax, paid by the seller: 0.75% on consideration up to $800,000.[1] On a $340,000 sale that is $2,550.
Municipal conveyance tax on top of that — 0.25% in most towns, higher in certain designated municipalities. Call it $850 and check your town.
Listing-side commission. At a traditional 2.5% that is $8,500. At our 1% plus a $400 transaction fee it is $3,800. Buyer-agent compensation is separate and negotiable in every case.
Seller's attorney: $1,200–$1,800
Buyer concessions, which are back in style: budget 1–2%, so $3,400–$6,800
The whole picture
Line | Amount |
|---|---|
Purchase price | $168,000 |
Acquisition costs | $8,500 |
Rehab with contingency | $80,500 |
Holding, six months | $16,500 |
Selling costs (at 2.5% listing side) | $17,100 |
Total invested | $290,600 |
Sale at ARV | $340,000 |
Gross profit | $49,400 |
A $49,400 return on roughly $290,000 deployed over six months. Before income tax, and before anything goes wrong.
That is a real deal. It is not the deal the 70% rule promised you, which looked like $102,000.
Three things that decide whether this works
1. Your repair estimate. Every dollar of error here comes straight off profit, and errors run in one direction. The contingency is not padding — it is the difference between a deal and a lesson.
2. Your holding period. At roughly $2,750 a month in carry, two extra months costs you $5,500. Contractor availability in central Connecticut is the most common cause of overrun, and the fix is lining up trades before you close, not after.
3. Your selling cost. Look at the table again. Listing-side commission at 2.5% is $8,500; at 1% plus $400 it is $3,800. That $4,700 is 9.5% of the entire profit on this deal, and it arrives without you lifting a hammer. For an investor doing three flips a year, the difference is roughly $14,000 annually.
Where the Connecticut market actually stands
Connecticut foreclosure filings in the first half of 2026 were 1,763 properties, down 31% year over year, and Connecticut takes an average of 1,626 days to complete a foreclosure — against a national average of 563.[2]
What that means for a flipper: distressed acquisition in Connecticut is competitive and thin. The deals are not sitting on auction calendars. They come from relationships, from being on a list before a property is marketed, and from being able to close quickly when one appears.
Where to go next
Get CT and MA deals as they come available. Join the investor and foreclosure alert list →
Run a deal past us. Call or text 860-209-3000 with an address and we will give you our honest read, including when the answer is "don't."
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Sources
Connecticut Department of Revenue Services, Real Estate Conveyance Tax Change (rates effective July 1, 2020: 0.75% up to $800,000; 1.25% from $800,000.01 to $2,500,000; 2.25% above $2,500,000). portal.ct.gov
ATTOM, Foreclosure Activity Posts Annual Increase in First Half of 2026 (published July 16, 2026). attomdata.com
Written by Zack DeCaro, licensed Connecticut real estate broker (REB.0795525) with Property Works New England. Cost ranges are illustrative estimates for central Connecticut and will vary by property, town, lender and contractor. Not tax, legal or investment advice. All commissions and fees are negotiable and not set by law or any MLS.
